The article presents an integrated approach to identifying and spatiotemporally assessing forest loss in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha National Park (NP) and the Polessky State Radioecological Reserve (PSRR). For the period 2001–2025, the Random Forest algorithm identified forest loss in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha NP over more than 14.9 kha with a peak period in 2016–2018, and in the PSRR over an area of 16.4 kha with maximums in 2003–2006, 2011–2013, and 2016–2018. A correlation analysis of annual forest loss values and drought climate indices revealed that the KBDI drought index with a one-year time lag for 2001–2019 had the strongest correlation (up to 0.68 in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha NP and 0.78 in the PSRR). The least resilient forests were those on poor sandy soils with insufficient moisture (27.5 % of the forest ecological group, FEG, area lost) and unstable moisture (17.9 %), in particular pine (up to 27.4 %), spruce (up to 18.3 %) and birch (up to 49.9 %). In the PSRR, the least resilient were pine forests on poor sandy soils with insufficient (28.8 % of the FEG area) and unstable moisture (19.2 %). Based on the identified ecological and climatic patterns of forest loss development, an approach to annual forecasting of the potential for forest pathological processes has been developed.

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