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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">vestib</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия Национальной  академии наук Беларуси. Серия биологических наук</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Biological Series</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1029-8940</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2524-230X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Republican Unitary Enterprise Publishing House "Belaruskaya Navuka"</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">vestib-289</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ДИНАМИКА И ПРОГНОЗ РАЗВИТИЯ МЕТАПОПУЛЯЦИЙ МХА NECKERA PENNATA В БЕЛАРУСИ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS AND PROGNOSIS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE MOSS NECKERA PENNATA IN BELARUS</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Левкович</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Levkovich</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>науч. сотрудник</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Researcher</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">a.shevkunova@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Масловский</surname><given-names>О. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Maslovsky</surname><given-names>O. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. биол. наук, зав. сектором</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ph. D. (Biol.), Head of the Department</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">oleg.maslovsky@tut.by</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт экспериментальной ботаники им. В. Ф. Купревича НАН Беларуси</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>V. F. Kuprevich Institute of Experimental Botany of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2017</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day><month>08</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>14</fpage><lpage>26</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Левкович А.В., Масловский О.М., 2017</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2017</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Левкович А.В., Масловский О.М.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Levkovich A.V., Maslovsky O.M.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://vestibio.belnauka.by/jour/article/view/289">https://vestibio.belnauka.by/jour/article/view/289</self-uri><abstract><p>С целью изучения на территории Беларуси устойчивости, особенностей динамики и составления прогноза развития метапопуляций эпифитного мха Neckera pennata Hedw., включенного в Красную книгу Республики Беларусь, а также охраняемого в Европе, исследована динамика 6 метапопуляций данного вида. Подтверждено влияние таких параметров, как диаметр ствола, угол наклона деревьев, глубина трещин коры, на относительное покрытие данного мха и его средний годовой прирост. Выявлены оптимальные значения данных параметров для роста N. pennata. Предложены коэффициент оптимальности для каждой метапопуляции, вычисление которого дает возможность количественно прогнозировать ее развитие, а также показатель зависимости прироста от параметров деревьев-хозяев, обилия и меры связанности – Ri , между которыми выявлена сильная корреляция. Установлена нелинейная зависимость среднего относительного годового прироста от Ri по отдельным видам деревьев. Проведенные исследования позволили сделать более точный прогноз развития метапопуляций N. pennata на ближайшие два года. </p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>For the investigations on the territory of Belarus of stability, dynamics and making prognosis of development of metapopulations of the epyphitic moss Neckera pennata Hedw., included in the Red Data Book of Belarus and also protected in Europe, the dynamics of six metapopulations of this species was studied. The influence of such parameters as tree trunk diameter, tree inclination, and depth of bark crevices on the relative cover of this moss and its average annual increase was confirmed. The optimal values of these parameters for the growth of N. pennata were revealed. The coefficient of optimality for every metapopulation, which estimation gives possibility to predict quantitatively its development, and also the factor of dependence of increase on the parameters of host trees, ability and connectivity – Ri , between which strong correlation was revealed, were proposed. Non-linear dependence of the average relative annual increase on Ri for the separate tree species was established. The investigations enabled to do more accurate prognosis of the development of N. pennata metapopulations in the next two years.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Neckera pennata</kwd><kwd>параметры деревьев-хозяев</kwd><kwd>нелинейная зависимость</kwd><kwd>коэффициенты оптимальности</kwd><kwd>средний балл состояния метапопуляций</kwd><kwd>прогноз</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Neckera pennata</kwd><kwd>parameters of host trees</kwd><kwd>non-linear dependence</kwd><kwd>coefficients of optimality</kwd><kwd>average point of state of metapopulations</kwd><kwd>prognosis</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Заугольнова, Л. Б. Подходы к оценке состояния ценопопуляций растений / Л. Б. Заугольнова, Л. В. Денисова, С. В. Никитина // Бюл. Моск. о-ва испытателей природы. 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